2017-18 San Antonio Rampage (AHL) and Colorado Eagles (ECHL)

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Avsrule2022

"No more rats"
Apr 4, 2012
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Meloche has been the worst player on the ice for the Eagles the last 2 games. Embarrassing actually. Not looking at all like NHL material. Barron has played poorly. Beaudin has been ok. but can't win a faceoff to save his life. Joly is the invisible man. Cannata got pulled in yesterday's loss and tonight gave up 4 goals on 10 shots, including 2 in the first 2 shots. Avs contracted players are pooping the bed for the Eagles. I have been to over 500 Eagles games and tonight was the closest I have ever come to leaving early. Even closer than last night's 6-0 drubbing (only the 3rd time in 15 years the Eagles have been shutout at home). Chemistry is non-existent, along with desire. No cup for the Eagles this year.

Rant over.
 

Gigantor The Goalie

Speak for the Goalies
Feb 4, 2012
13,076
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Still on this crazy opinion about how Avs should pick goalers with late 1sts and seconds still? Martin busted because he was a 3rd? Definitely disagree with your statements here, especially when the data is on the contrary. We as a league went through that faze during the 2000s when teams tried to solve their goaltending issues by picking them high and in the 1st round....besides a couple we kept going through notorious busts year after year.

In actuality, organizations started drafting goalers later because of all the ones who kept being busts in the 1st and 2nd. You mention Spencer Martin year and as I fan of him I will even admit he didn't take a step in the right direction. I still don't think he's a lost cause as Sparks showed you can go on waivers and have a revolutionary year still. Just surprised you didn't mention Peter Delmas who was a 2nd rounder you dream of GTG and was an utter failure. Trevor Cann is another 2nd rounder who failed. Only person who didn't fail is Calvin Pickard and not sure you can call him a saviour either, more like a good teammate/back up combo which is what we picked in Peter Budaj who also was a 2nd rounder.

Sorry, but I just cannot agree that we should use some of our top 60 picks on goaltender prospects. If we have more than one I don't mind going for some risk like we do in this draft, but for the most part I rather grab players and try to trade for prospects from other teams. Goaltenders don't go for a lot and there are limited number of positions available, so certain teams which have stocked goaltending system will eventually get rid of some because that's the nature of the game. Look at the Ducks for example, they had a deep system with Andersen and Gibson, they targeted Gibson and allowed Andersen to move on for not a whole lot. That's how we targeted Varlamov in the first place and the route Avs should go when it comes time to address our goaltending situation again (which will be soon). I am not saying Avs shouldn't fill the need from within, they absolutely should, but I haven't seen good reason for me to change my mind and pick one in the top 60.


Sorry for the late response, I wanted to make sure I actually had time to sit down and ensure my answers/response was clear.

There's a misconception around how we look at goalie prospects and unconsciously compare them to skaters. When we look at goalie prospects everything about them is magnified because there's never as many goalies in the system as there are forwards or defenders. If Jake Oettinger busts all we'll ever hear about is how you never should take goalies in the 1st round. Yet Bleackley busts and it's fine to take another forward there because he's a late 1st rounder and while it sucks that it happens it's not exactly unheard of. Hell look at the history at the 10th overall pick before the Avs got it twice in a row, from 2014 to 2006 all skaters have been chosen there and the best players taken there have been Frolik and Brodin.

Failures and marginal players happen out of every part of the draft yet we don't care about McIlarth, MSP, Hodgson, Ellerby when there's a lot of noise made about Jack Campbell or any other goalie drafted out of the first round that didn't work out. Everyone knows about Campbell because goalies are under the magnifying glass more which leads to the narrative that goalies taken in the 1st round are infinitely more risky to take then a skater yet the data doesn't share that view.

InGoal magazine took a good look at the question just how much more riskier is it to draft a goalie vs a skater in the 1st round by taking the data from the 2002 to 2013 drafts (Article was published in 2015).

5EEhNxK.png


"
First round failure rates are worth a closer look. While it appears that skaters taken early in the draft are more likely to be better than marginal players, the vast majority of that advantage comes from players drafted in the top 15 spots alone and it is largely a function of who gets drafted first.

In essence the top 15 draft picks are highly successful and are almost never goaltenders. When goalies do get drafted there, they are as likely to enter the NHL as forwards and defensemen and are as likely to be better than marginal. There are simply not very many of them. Thus we get a very high success rate at the top of the first round that doesn’t accrue to goaltenders.

So what does this all mean?

In essence it means that NHL teams are generally bad at drafting at all positions with the important exception of the very, very best. Those players who are exceptionally outstanding at age 18–the can’t miss prospects–have a very high rate of success. That efficiency is largely gone by the second round, where more than 40% of all draftees will never play in the NHL at all and around 70% or more will become only marginal players.
NHL teams are bad at projecting players at all positions, not just goaltending and goalies don’t really fail at much higher rates than skaters."


I've done some data tracking myself just looking at starting goalies as the back-ups change so often and generally you're always aiming to end up with starter over just a back-up. There are 31 starters in the league and here's where which round they came from:
1st Round: 28.1%
2nd Round: 21.9%
3rd Round: 18.8%
4th Round: 3.1%
5th Round: 6.3%
6th Round: 0%
7th Round: 3.1%
8th Round: 3.1%
Free Agents: 12.5%

It's hard to argue that there isn't any talent in the first two rounds of the draft especially when looking at the goalies who are starters:

Cam Ward, Carey Price, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tuukka Rask, Semyon Varlamov, Roberto Loungo, Devan Dubnyk, Cory Schneider, MAF, John Gibson, Corey Crawford, Jimmy Howard, Jake Allen, Michal Neuvirth, Robin Lehner, Jacob Markstrom, Jon Quick

Sure there's some not so great starters in there however the same can be said for 1st/2nd rounders in the NHL that aren't so great either. Yet a goalie taken in the late first is often thought of in the same vein as a player taken in the top 10 rather than comparing them to other late 1st rounders. Martin busting as a 3rd round pick really shouldn't be that surprising considering that 3rd round picks aren't guarantees to play any NHL games. 14 out of the 30 2013 3rd rounders have yet to play an NHL game. That's a 46.7% failure rate, 26.7% marginal rate, 26.6% success rate for the 3rd round in 2013. None of those successes are goalies. Do we now never draft a goalie in the 3rd round? That'd be ridiculous because teams still draft skaters in the 3rd despite the high failure rate.

I agree it's not over for Martin yet however it's not looking great when he's trending down and his draft mates are trending up. I'd be down for giving him next season to see if he's capable of making any improvements. There's obvious talent that you want to see come through and don't want to give up too quickly. The time is starting to run down on him though because of the downward trend. I also want to say that I don't advocate for the Avalanche to just take a goalie in the 1st/2nd round for the hell of it. If a goalie is worthy of it take him there just like you a forward or defender.

As for the "just trade for a starter" idea it's certainly feasible just like it's feasible to trade for defenders or forwards to fill in important parts of the line-up but it's rarely cheap. Here's prices teams have paid for goalies via trade and remember a large majority of these were unproven starters:

f24afob.png


Trading for established starters is very difficult as team's just hate to give them up if they can avoid it. Even when they are available they aren't overly cheap.
 

cgf

FireBednarsSuccessor
Oct 15, 2010
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The Toronto Marlies have invested heavily in their veterans and it’s paid off

Interesting article. From the chart halfway down the article, it looks like the Avs spent the second most money overall on AHL vets last year behind Calgary. Both teams missed the playoffs. Yet the Leafs spent the 3rd most and have a very solid team. Time for some new vets?

AHL vets help, but the avs have spent on vets, and then they spent on new vets, and now we're once again talking about spending on new vets; so this organization has to eventually learn that AHL vets don't make the difference on their own.

What does make the difference is homegrown talents & FA-prospects that those vets support; kids like Greer, Kamenev, Shvyryov, Beaudin, Toninato, Dickinson, Lewis, Meloche, Timmins, etc.
 
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McMetal

Writer of Wrongs
Sep 29, 2015
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I just wish we had some more strength at center on the Eagles. Dickinson, Shvyrev, Toninato and Beaudin is not a great looking group on paper. Unless we get a real good coach in there that group will probably struggle to put consistent offense together, and it'll make it hard for the team to compete unless Timmins really helps from the back end.
 

CobraAcesS

De Opresso Liber
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Jul 20, 2011
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I just wish we had some more strength at center on the Eagles. Dickinson, Shvyrev, Toninato and Beaudin is not a great looking group on paper. Unless we get a real good coach in there that group will probably struggle to put consistent offense together, and it'll make it hard for the team to compete unless Timmins really helps from the back end.

Maybe Dallas will give us something for taking on Spezza's contract, and then we can send him over there to be the #1C. Our salary cap problem would also be solved.

:naughty:
 

Avsrule2022

"No more rats"
Apr 4, 2012
683
247
Longmont, CO
AHL vets help, but the avs have spent on vets, and then they spent on new vets, and now we're once again talking about spending on new vets; so this organization has to eventually learn that AHL vets don't make the difference on their own.

What does make the difference is homegrown talents & FA-prospects that those vets support; kids like Greer, Kamenev, Shvyryov, Beaudin, Toninato, Dickinson, Lewis, Meloche, Timmins, etc.

I totally get it, but there should be a way to guess what kinds of holes will be on the AHL team and maybe look at some different vets. I would rather see that than trying to use some of the current ECHL guys to fill the holes. Hopefully a new coaching staff will have a little input. I wouldn't complain if the Avs kept on spending on AHL vets until we get another draft or 2 of guys in Loveland. But I know that is really pushing the limit on past Avs development history.
 

cgf

FireBednarsSuccessor
Oct 15, 2010
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I'm not saying I want them to stop spending on vets with which to surround the kids, but any credible playoff runs will come from the pipeline.

...if Billington learns how to not burn everything he touches, or we just let the Eagles' management take over Billington's job to...then maybe I'd have some faith in AHL vets not just suddenly becoming useless the instant they enter the system as though their talent was space-jam'd away...
 
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S E P H

Cloud IX
Mar 5, 2010
30,706
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Avs have interviews with Beaudin, Meloche, Barron, and Nantel on the team's website. Some of them are interesting, but majority talk about how they thought their seasons went. Interestingly, Meloche needed work on skating throughout the year, Beaudin mentioned that the speed of the game is faster, and Nantel said that the Avs told him to focus on the defencive side of his game to eventually become a bottom 6 forward.
 
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henchman21

Mr. Meeseeks
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Feb 24, 2012
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Any speculation on who the Avs' ECHL might be when the Eagles move up to the AHL???

Greeneville and Norfork are the only two teams that don't have some affiliation at the moment, but there are only 27 teams. I'd venture to guess the Avs will share an affiliation (some rumors they will share Tulsa), or roll without one for the season. Then a new team pops up in 2019.
 
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Pokecheque

Whack it Hard to Girard
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Greeneville and Norfork are the only two teams that don't have some affiliation at the moment, but there are only 27 teams. I'd venture to guess the Avs will share an affiliation (some rumors they will share Tulsa), or roll without one for the season. Then a new team pops up in 2019.

Actually the Orlando Solar Bears need an affiliate as well since the Leafs will be taking on the Newfoundland Growlers. I’m hoping the Avs opt for the Swamp Rabbits though, love those jerseys.
 
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Avsrule2022

"No more rats"
Apr 4, 2012
683
247
Longmont, CO
Sakic said in a previous interview that an ECHL affiliate was already agreed upon and they were just waiting to sign the contract. Also, Rapid City, Allen and Idaho's affiliation agreements are up this summer, with possible openings in Utah, Wichita, Tulsa and Missouri.
 
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cgf

FireBednarsSuccessor
Oct 15, 2010
59,988
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Avs have interviews with Beaudin, Meloche, Barron, and Nantel on the team's website. Some of them are interesting, but majority talk about how they thought their seasons went. Interestingly, Meloche needed work on skating throughout the year, Beaudin mentioned that the speed of the game is faster, and Nantel said that the Avs told him to focus on the defencive side of his game to eventually become a bottom 6 forward.

I’m still rooting for Nantel because he was part of that baby-Avs Huskies team, but he needs to make something happen soon. Cause at this point I’m more worried about keeping Petryk & Belzille in the organization than I am Nantel and those two are pure AHLers. Definitely excited to see JCB & french-Nic in year two though.

Henchy loves to remind folks that Beaudin has needed a year to adjust at each new level, and hopefully he has started to become a fan favorite in Loveland with the way he went off in the playoffs, reminding people that he had legit offensive potential to and wasn’t just a gork. Would be sweet to see him take over as the “2C” on that team who can take tough minutes & produce some offense.

I’m sure folks are sick of me reminding them that once Meloche got healthy and got consistent PT, he took over as SA’s #1 blueliner. That he filled Dunk’s shoes as the anchor defensively wonderfully, while also running the break outs and getting dangerous shots on net in the offensive zone. Him becoming Josh Manson 2.0 is still a long ways away, but he’s continuing to make good progress in that direction; while maintaining the parts of his game that gave rise to that comparison.

And I’m low key really excited for Barron to hit the AHL, as I’m hoping he can become that homegrown AHL leader I once thought big Sam Henley was going to be.
 
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