Prospect Info: 2017-18 Prospects Thread (CHL, NCAA, Junior A, Europe)

[S E P H]

No I don't StayAv, I just missed your post when I was writing mine. My bad.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

2017 PROSPECT RANKING
[table="head;width=800]RANK|PREV|CHNG|NAME|POS|TEAM|DRAFT|VOTES

1|New|N/A|Cale Makar|D|Brooks (AJHL)|#4 overall 2017|133 votes, 54.14%|

2|3|+1|Tyson Jost|C|University of North Dakota (NCHC)|#10 overall 2016|111 votes, 96.40%|

3|4|+1| JT Compher|C|San Antonio (AHL)|#35 overall 2013TR|107 votes, 60.75%

4|5|+1| Nicolas Meloche|D|Charlottetown (QMJHL)|#40 overall 2015|117 votes, 37.61%|

5|2|-3| Chris Bigras|D|San Antonio (AHL)|#32 overall 2013|111 votes, 53.15%|

6|6|0| AJ Greer|LW|San Antonio (AHL)|#39 overall 2015|115 votes, 53.04%|

7|New|N/A| Conor Timmins | D| Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)|#32 overall 2017| 89 votes, 73.03%|

8|11|+3| Andrei Mironov|D|Dynamo Moskva (KHL)|#101 overall 2015|94 votes, 41.49%|

9|7|-2| JC Beaudin|C|Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL)|#71 overall 2015|87 votes, 51.72% |

10|New|N/A| Igor Shvyryov| C| Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk (MHL)|#125 overall 2017| 89 votes, 28.09%|

11|8|-3| Cam Morrison|C|University of Notre Dame (Big10)|#40 overall 2016|79 votes, 43.04%|

12|9|-3| Spencer Martin|G|San Antonio (AHL)|#63 overall 2013|70 votes, 57.14%|

13|18|+5| Anton Lindholm|D|San Antonio (AHL)|#144 overall 2014|71 votes, 57.75%|

14|New|N/A| Alexander Kerfoot| C| Harvard (ECAC)|#150 overall 2012FA| 34 votes, 38.24%|

15|New|N/A| Nick Henry | RW| Regina (WHL)|#94 overall 2017| 67 votes, 68.66%|

16|New|N/A| Dominic Toninato| C| Univ. of Minnesota-Duluth (NCHC)|#126 overall 2012FA| 47 votes, 34.04%|

17|New|N/A| Denis Smirnov| RW| Penn State University (Big10)|#156 overall 2017| 55 votes, 32.73%|

18|19|+1| Nate Clurman|D|Culver Academy (USHS)|#161 overall 2016|51 votes, 27.45%|

19|12|-7| Sergei Boikov|D|San Antonio (AHL) |#161 overall 2015|61 votes, 36.07%|

20|15|-5| Duncan Siemens|D|San Antonio (AHL)|#11 overall 2011|51 votes, 45.10%|



[/table]


2016 HONORABLE MENTION
[table="head;width=800]RANK|PREV|CHNG|NAME|POS|TEAM|DRAFT|VOTES

21|10|-11| Julien Nantel|C/LW|San Antonio (AHL)|#204 overall 2014|44 votes, 61.36%|

22|16|-6| Josh Anderson|D|Prince George (WHL)|#71 overall 2016|49 votes, 55.10%|

23|New|N/A| Petr Kvaca | G|HC Ceske Budejovice (Czech2)|#114 overall 2017| 39 votes, 33.33%|

24|20|-4| Travis Barron|LW|Ottawa (OHL)|#191 overall 2016|37 votes, 35.14%|

25|New|N/A| Nicky Leivermann| D|Eden Prairie (USHS)|#187 overall 2017| 34 votes, 47.06%|



[/table]

​

Post pre-season and training camp changes?

I would say Bigras up to #3, Timmins jumps Greer, Lindholm up past Mironov, Kerfoot up to Compher, Martin drops past Smirnov

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Compher over Jost right now also.

Makar
Compher
Jost
Bigras
Meloche
Greer
Timmins
Kerfoot
Lindholm
Smirnov


That's probably my personal Top 10 right now. Though the 10th spot is a very difficult one and I think any one of 4-5 guys could have that spot. I'm not a fan of the lack of game time Shvyryov is getting in Russia, nor the situation Beaudin is unfortunately in with San Antonio. Also think it's pretty clear we as a group had Mironov to high, though I still think he belongs in that ~12-15 range but his game isn't as far along as we all thought it would be.

Ty Lewis also joins that group now, and he's probably in that 11-15 zone as well.

 

[Gigantor The Goalie]

I will say that the WHL average SV% is a joke right now at 0.884...it was ~0.899 last season so scoring is coming easier than in the OHL or QMJHL at the moment.

On our two goalie prospects outside of the pro system they are having two completely different starts. Werner is sporting a 0.891 SV% while Kvaca is at a 0.920 SV%. Obviously it's only 6 games in as well as both goalies being in completely different leagues but it's something to watch especially considering Werner's SV% last year was only 0.892 so still hoping for improvement here. For Kvaca I hope he sees some Tier 1 action soon to really prove where he is because he proved last season he's good at the Czech2 level.

 

[UncleRisto]

Kvaca definitely needs to stick in the Extraliga soon if he's getting anywhere in his career. Czech2 is garbage and he's 20. People don't exactly burst onto the scene from European division 1 teams.

 

[Spleenless Wonder21]

CamMo’s 1st period shot rebounded to a teammate for an assist on ND’s 1st goal last night, & he was on the ice for the PP equalizer late in the 3rd, as the Irish dropped a tough one to top ranked DU.

 

[S E P H]

I watched that game and DU are a dreadful team to watch, they employ 5x as much interference tactics than ****ing Babcock and it's not even funny.

If the NCAA wasn't run by such a ****feast of people, all these ancient dinosaur rules would be thrown out of the window. For example, each hockey conference have different ways and rules in how a game ends. Some even have ties. That OT was a 5 minute 5v5 slug feast where Notre Dame actually had some decent chances followed by a shootout. Awesome way to grow college hockey, which is the overall point...

 

[tigervixxxen]

DU has always been dreadful to watch

 

[S E P H]

DU has always been dreadful to watch

As a CC fan I agree, but as a non-bias admirer of just hockey, they have the quality and talent to actually be offencive like Penn State is for instance. They're ranked #1 for a reason, however, Montgomery has them playing a pretty pathetic brand of hockey. Gwozdecky was always a better coach.

 

[Tralfamadore]

Anyone catch the UMass game? They won 5-4. Cale picked up an assist on the PP.

 

[Iracundia]

Umass up 2-0 Makar with 2 PPA

Edit: scoring change down to 1 assist but UMass still won so now 3-1 on the season

 

[S E P H]

Yikes,
Josh Anderson is out with an "upper-body injury" and is out on a "month-to-month" basis. I think you guys can guess what it might be.

Good news,
Sounds like Nick Henry will be back somewhere in the early portion of November.

 

[Avs_19]

More on Makar: http://www.masslive.com/umasshockey...ar_umass_hockey_freshm.html#incart_river_home

 

[landy92mack29]

Yikes,
Josh Anderson is out with an "upper-body injury" and is out on a "month-to-month" basis. I think you guys can guess what it might be.

Good news,
Sounds like Nick Henry will be back somewhere in the early portion of November.

Anderson separated his shoulder and is expected to be out 6-8 weeks. He expects to be back in 6

 

[JoemAvs]

Ty Lewis now tied for 1st in scoring in the WHL with 25 points in 10 games...

Again. I agree with others that these numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt but still great that the Avs signed the kid to a contract after he did decently in camp.

Hopefully a win-win for everyone and it bolsters our depth a bit which is nice..

Everyone knows that I am not a fan of Sakics work but he has done a nice job of bolstering our organisational winger depth in the organisation for rather cheap recently....

Yakupov, Ghetto, Lewis, Kerfoot, Shvyryov (can he play C at the next level?), Smirnov, Henry...

All young wingers and added over the last 5 months.. None of them cost us more than a 3rd round pick.

I am not sure how many of these guys will be here for the longterm but it should allow us to focus more heavily on (left handed) D, C and G in 2018.

 

[Bender]

Ty Lewis now tied for 1st in scoring in the WHL with 25 points in 10 games...

Again. I agree with others that these numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt but still great that the Avs signed the kid to a contract after he did decently in camp.

Hopefully a win-win for everyone and it bolsters our depth a bit which is nice..

Everyone knows that I am not a fan of Sakics work but he has done a nice job of bolstering our organisational winger depth in the organisation for rather cheap recently....

Yakupov, Ghetto, Lewis, Kerfoot, Shvyryov (can he play C at the next level?), Smirnov, Henry...

All young wingers and added over the last 5 months.. None of them cost us more than a 3rd round pick.

I am not sure how many of these guys will be here for the longterm but it should allow us to focus more heavily on (left handed) D, C and G in 2018.

I think this is a good post.

For all of the people that criticize Sakic, if he had come out and explicitly outlined his plan and what he was doing he probably wouldn't get nearly as much flack as he does. I guess sometimes lack of expected activity is seen as incompetence because things aren't done within a certain timetable. I'll agree, some decisions are riskier than others but I'm still waiting for that giant blunder to criticize him and it hasn't happened yet.

Many lesser GMs would have Milbury-ed this thing with Duchene. The Bruins traded away Seguin and ended up with pretty much nothing in return (Eriksson - signed in Vancouver / Morrow - AHLer and has moved on / Rielly Smith traded for Jimmy Hayes who was bought out and now with New Jersey) Imagine that, having a 21 year old, former 2nd overall pick who had already put up a 67 point season and four years later, you have NOTHING to show for him. Ouch.

Sakic and his staff have been methodical but I'm expecting it to pay off big time.

 

[Chileiceman]

It's amazing how much this team's drafting seems to have improved since 2015 onwards. I'm looking back at some of our drafts and holy crap they are bad. I understand that most players drafted won't make the NHL. But a lot of the guys the Avs drafted could not crack it in the AHL or in high level European leagues. How do you whiff so badly?

2010 draft was actually not horrendous in hindsight but still pretty bad.
1. Joey Hishon - We all know what happened. The pick was a reach at the time but he was was having ana amzing draft+1 year until the hit in the Memorial Cup which ruined his career.
2. Calvin Pickard - Turned out to be a back-up at the NHL level, still young for a goalie.
3. Michael Bournival - Played over 100 games in the NHL, never played at a level lower than AHL as a pro. Decent pick. After him this draft it gets ugly.
4. Stephen Silas - Played Canadian University hockey. Is currently 25 and playing pro in France. Awful pick.
5. Sami Aittokallio - Got into 2 NHL games. Currently playing for Sparta Praha in top flight Czech league which is at least somewhat respectable. Meh pick.
6. Troy Rutkowski - Never managed to become full-time AHL'er. Currently 25 and playing in Norway. Bad pick.
7. Luke Moffat - Has spent his career playing low-level European Hockey. Currently 25 playing in England. Terrible pick.

2011 - Avs had two picks in top 11. Obviously Landeskog is an NHL'er. Lets look at the rest which is not pretty.
2. Duncan Siemens - 11th overall pick and is looking unlikely to ever be an NHL'er. Horrific pick just beacause of where in the draft he was chosen.
3. Joachin Nermark - Bad player in Sweden, currently in his second season in Norway as a 24 year old. Atrocious pick.
4. Garret Meurs - Never stuck in AHL. Looks like he is going to max out as ECHL'er. Bad pick, but as a 5th rounder at least he's a decent ECHL player.
5. Gabriel Beaupre - Managed to get into 144 AHL games, but is currently unemployed as a 24 year old. Bad pick.
6. Dillon Donnely - Never payed a single game of professional hockey. Is currenlty playing for Lakehead University in Thunder Bay. Someone should have been fired over this pick.

2012 - Lets keep the good times rolling. Only defensible picks were the last two.
1. Mitchell Heard - Ughhh. Drafted in second round as overager, currently playing in ECHL. The less said the better.
2. Troy Bourke - Never did much of anything in AHL, currently in ECHL. Bad pick, but heis young enough that he could still at least become career AHL'er.
3. Michael Clarke - Decided to play Canadian university hockey rather than grind it out in the ECHL. Bad pick.
4. Joseph Blandisi - What's that, a decent pick? Became ill, was not signed by the Avs. Looks like he may be fringe NHL'er. 68 NHL games to his name, though he did not make the opneing night roster for the Devils this year and is in the AHL.
5. Collin Smith - Good AHL player. Good pick.

2013 - The best draft since 2009. MacKinnon and Bigras are obviously worthy picks.
3. Spencer Martin - Still a young goalie, has shown himslef capable at AHL level so I'll just go ahead and call this one a good pick.
4. Mason Geertsen - 22 years old, has 90 AHL games under his belt, but was a fringe AHL'er last season. Doubtful he'll be an NHL'er, needs to solidy himself as full-time AHL'er this year. Meh pick.
5. Will Butcher - Superb pick, handled terribly by the organization. Don't balme him for not signign here after being told he was unwanted by Patrick Roy.
6. Ben Storm - Pro rookie playing in ECHL after lackluster NCAA career. Dosn't look like he'll amount to much. If he can make to AHL I'd call it a decent pick but that's looking doubtful. His terrible NCAA numbers make me believe it's not a stretch to call this a bad pick.
7. Willhem Westlund - Defenceman playing in Sweden's 2nd tier. Still only 23, could still carve out an SHL career. Meh pick.

2014 This is probably the worst of the lot.
1. Connor Bleackley - A first round pcik who went unsigned by the Avs and Yotes. Signed by St. Louis and is playing in ECHL. Hard to imagine a worse pick.
2. Kyle Wood - Looks like a promising prospect. Too bad we traded him for 20 games of Mikkel Boedker. A good pick.
3. Nick Magyar - Oh look, a pick worse than Bleackly. Was terrible in the OHl after being drafted, and has retired form hockey.
4. Alex Pepin - Big boy playing at Concordia University in Montreal. Terrible pick.
5. Anton Lindholm - Solid pick.
6. Max Pajpach - Goalie playing in Slovakia's second division. Still only 21, but an atrocious pick nonetheless.
7. Julien Nantel - 7th rounder, second year pro in AHL. Good pick.

So to recap in those five years, the Avs picked 32 players. Out of those 32, only 16 turned out to be at least career AHL or guys playing in elite European leagues (I call them AHL+ players). Half of the players the Avs have drafted into the NHL between 2010 and 2014 turned out to be not only bad picks in the sense that they in no way helped the Avs, but they turned out to be bad pro hockey players, period. Or in some cases, they didn't even have pro careers.

If you look at the 2015 draft, every player drafted by the Avs is looking like a lock to become an AHL+ player. Even Olhaver will likely at least become an SHL'er. He's only 20 and is a regular in the Allsvenskan.

Anyways, just thought I'd bring back some bad memories for everyone to enjoy.

 

[Ararana]

Does anyone with access want to give us a summary?

 

[S E P H]

Ehhhhhhh, I agree with your overall premise Chileman, but it's really unfair to call 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th round picks "horrible", "atrocious", and "terrible" picks considering how many of these actually become NHLers for any of the 31 remaining teams.

For example you gotta look at certain picks and understand why they were draft there. Meurs, if you ever watched him play was a decent pick in the 5th round. He never had the NHL talent, but his work ethic and tenacious is still one of the best I've seen. Bourke in the 3rd round wasn't a bad pick either, I contribute more of Coach Dean kind of destroying him than him never progressing. He was worth the risk. Players like Storm, Magyar, and Pepin were all high risks, high reward selections, so they took the chance on them. I agree they were bad selections, but I personally cannot deem them as straight out horrible picks because that was what Avs wanted to do. What I deem a ****ing horrible selection are ones they traded up to get, trading like two draft picks to trade up to select Stephen Silas is still downright the worst non-1st rounder dating back to the LaCroix days. No arguments from me concerning, Bleackley, Hishon, and Heard, those are the cream of the crop concerning who and what not to draft. I never wanted Siemens that high since I hate grabbing defencive-defencmen, but he's still a useful player and someone I want the Avs to keep down the road from now. I think your concerns over Pajpach are over the top, Avs drafted him as a 6th rounder and then he missed the entire season due to a ligament or tendon injury I believe. He's probably going to be a bust, but hard to fault him for that.

I'm glad Pracey is gone, but Hepple is not a widely different type of scout. He studied under Pracey and I believe shares a lot of the same scouting desires as Rick, however, I suggest he's more open to listening to other scouts and taking their word. I am not saying Pracey didn't do that, but every other pick under him was a 5'10" centre from central or western Canada disregarding 90% of the rest of the hockey world. When you limit yourself to one to three leagues, you're going to have more busts than homeruns. The 2017 draft though is definitely one of the more riskier ones on the top of my head...

- Cale Makar: Who is probably one of the riskier prospects in the past two to three drafts.
- Connor Timmins: Consider this a safe selection, sort of the Chris Bigras type.
- Nick Henry: Who not only played on an absurd junior team which could have boosted his stats, he came off shoulder surgery.
- Petr Kvaca: A goaler who randomly played in Czech2 last year, great athletic ability, but questions around the rest of his game.
- Igor Shvyrev: Extremely talented, no word on if he's ever going to come over.
- Denis Smirnov: Another really talented player, but is more on the smaller side and might never adjust to the pros style of game.
- Nick Leivermann: Good value in the 7th, no arguments from me considering it's the seventh round.

This draft can either make or break Avs depth chart, or it could blow up in all our faces. I quite like the risk factor though, you won't ever get anywhere while playing the cautious card.

 

[Chileiceman]

Yes Seph, my assessments aremade with the benefit of hindsight. At the time some of those players may have seemed like sensible choices. But I was just surprised to see so many players that not only were not NHL'ers, but weren't able to carve out a career at a somewhat high level. Like not even KHL'ers, or DEL or FHL or SHL, let alone AHL. Two guys are playing in Norway, another in France, one guy is playing senior hockey in BC, one retired, one doesn't have a team and so on.

 

[Pokecheque]

Donnelly was the epitome of a throwaway pick. I get that 7th rounders are longshots anyway but...ugh. Hated that pick right away.

BTW, remember that both Wojtek Wolski and Chris Stewart (and to a lesser degree, Joey Hishon) were also "risky picks". Don't get me wrong, I think Makar is a much better risk than those guys but I don't think Pracey's problem was necessarily playing it safe.

 

[Valar Morghulis]

Does anyone with access want to give us a summary?

-He mentions that it's obvious when Makar has the puck. That he has an explosive first few steps with elite skill.
-A gm says that he is the best player of his age at getting the puck through the neutral zone.
-Needs to work on 1v1 puck battles along the boards. Has been working on adjusting his defensive techniques.
-The Avs have spoken a lot with Greg Carvel about his defensive development. Coach says there is nothing to worry, as he believes that Cale is very coachable
-Has had a huge impact on the game offensively. Says that Makar has turned their pp around from being the worst in the league last season. He plays the full 2 minutes.
-Carvel says he hopes Makar will be with the Avs next season, he's that kind of player.

 

[Ararana]

-He mentions that it's obvious when Makar has the puck. That he has an explosive first few steps with elite skill.
-A gm says that he is the best player of his age at getting the puck through the neutral zone.
-Needs to work on 1v1 puck battles along the boards. Has been working on adjusting his defensive techniques.
-The Avs have spoken a lot with Greg Carvel about his defensive development. Coach says there is nothing to worry, as he believes that Cale is very coachable
-Has had a huge impact on the game offensively. Says that Makar has turned their pp around from being the worst in the league last season. He plays the full 2 minutes.
-Carvel says he hopes Makar will be with the Avs next season, he's that kind of player.

You're awesome, thanks!

 

[tigervixxxen]

Yes Seph, my assessments aremade with the benefit of hindsight. At the time some of those players may have seemed like sensible choices. But I was just surprised to see so many players that not only were not NHL'ers, but weren't able to carve out a career at a somewhat high level. Like not even KHL'ers, or DEL or FHL or SHL, let alone AHL. Two guys are playing in Norway, another in France, one guy is playing senior hockey in BC, one retired, one doesn't have a team and so on.

It's a broken record but I'm going to say it every time a list of draft success/failures comes up, it's just as much about development and opportunity as it is about drafting. Some picks the issues or flaws were apparent right away, others who had talent with a different situation, development might have turned out differently. We'll never know, nobody has a crystal ball and a time machine. But the analysis can't be one dimensional.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

It's a broken record but I'm going to say it every time a list of draft success/failures comes up, it's just as much about development and opportunity as it is about drafting. Some picks the issues or flaws were apparent right away, others who had talent with a different situation, development might have turned out differently. We'll never know, nobody has a crystal ball and a time machine. But the analysis can't be one dimensional.

Disagree with this pretty strongly.


Sure development plays a minor role in it. But 90% of the development is on a player themselves. Whether they actually have the skill and talent to make it in the big leagues and more importantly whether they have the work ethic and drive to continue pushing themselves as they go further along.


I really dont think development has any sort of significant impact on whether all these guys end up busting or not making it to the big leagues. It might play a minor role towards the very end(Like from getting to the NHL from the top of the AHL or getting from being a bottom pairing Dman to being a Top 4 NHL Dman) but 90% of the process is on the player.