~2014 Grandpabuzz 4-round Draft Prediction thread~

Grandpabuzz

Registered User
Oct 13, 2003
910
0
Dallas, Texas
As some of you know, for the past couple of years I’ve modeled out my projections determined completely through statistical analysis of who the best players are for the upcoming draft. The prospect stats are then regressed against established NHLers (over 3000 minutes played in the NHL) that play the same position and are from the same junior league level. So for example defensemen Aaron Ekblad’s performance in the OHL will be compared to how defensemen Alex Pietrangelo and other OHL defensemen performed as a junior player. The method strips out noise such as age differences to give the best comparison possible. If Ekblad’s OHL performance is similar to Pietrangelo’s, then Ekblad will be rated similarly to what Pietrangelo is currently rated in the NHL (63).

This is not necessary a traditional mock draft based on specific team needs, but more at an attempt to determine which players exhibit the best reward potential, given their risk. Ekblad would be rated higher than Jack Dougherty due to Ekblad’s consistent play in the OHL (a league which sends a lot of players to the NHL) versus a prospect who played excellent high school hockey in New York but still is still considered a risk. So For those who understand finance, the players are ranked based on an algorithm very similar to that of a Sharpe Ratio.

And you can also find a more detailed explanation of my entire rating system

Here

In a nutshell, a score of 60 or above is first line/pair talent, 57-60 is second line/pair talent, 54-57 is third line/pair talent, and below are fringe/fourth line players.

For your reference, the top forwards, defensemen and goalies for this past season are shown below. You can make your own judgment as to whether you agree if the ratings match what your perception of the player’s performance is.

seasonbest.png


And the overall best players (using data since 2006) and current respective scores are shown below

bestplayer.png


As a another exhibit, the chart below shows the current best prospects (players that have played less than 1,500 minutes in the NHL) based on my methodology

2013prospects.png


Before getting into this year’s draft I wanted to show a comparison of how last year’s draft went against my ratings. Please note that every year I’m given more data, so the comparison between seasons is not entirely apples to apples. However, the general ranking of the draft is fairly consistent with the previous year excluding of some players (Jones falling after a poor last half of the season, Compher/Mantha having great years, etc)

2013draft.png


This year I’m only showing the first four rounds as after that the variance between players is not that significant. Again, please understand that this is not a mock draft, but just a list of player based on statistical analysis.

I will try to justify some of the biggest surprises compared to most other rankings:

Kasperi Kapanen – Really not sure why so many people are high on him; didn’t contribute too much a weak team in Finland; stats were worse than Lehkonen who was drafted in round two last year; performance not near Granlund, Teravainen and Barkov

Dylan Larkin - Scored 31 goals this year; but Tuch and especially Milano have outperformed him consistently throughout the U17, U18 and USHL

Brendan Lemieux – Lots of hype because of his name and size; this season was decent and had a great playoffs but still had one of the worst plus/minus on the team; took a lot of penalty minutes

Adrian Kempe – Pretty meh appearance in Modo despite his size; having guys like Pahlsson and Richie Regher outscore isn’t great; played at same level like Edwin Hedberg who is undrafted (although I know there is a 2 year age difference); junior performance wasn’t great either

Kevin Fiala – Played well in brief games at the SHL, but his junior stats were pretty lackluster; guys like Nylander, Vrana and Pastrnak all outperformed him

Robert Fabbri – First year wasn’t great with Guelph and height is a concern. Nonetheless, he looked very good in the playoffs (this is me qualitatively speaking) and is probably the pick I’m least confident about with the model.

Brandon Montour / Mark Friedman – Montour is on the older side but both players were able to dish the puck out extremely well on a Green Bay team which lost Cammarta, Stepan, Kloos and McCoshen this year; both also outperformed Zach Sanford which was a 2nd round pick last year; Montour had the best plus minus on the team

Antti Kalapudas – Don’t know why more attention isn’t on him instead of Kapanen; he and Aho (who will probably be a top pick next year) dominated the junior team
Gavin Bayreuther – Is an older player, but played extremely well first year at college despite having pretty meh stats in the USHL; led all defensemen in plus/minus on the team

Cody Donaghey – He is the another player where my methodology may show some flaws. He put decent numbers as a defensemen for Quebec (best on team), offense was great during playoffs, and body is okay; however played with top offensive guys like Erne, Duclair and Girgorenko which inflates his score (but can’t be picked up too well with my algorithm)


Pick | Player | Position | Rating
1 | Sam Reinhart | F | 66.1
2 | Nikolaj Ehlers | F | 62.9
3 | Leon Draisaitl | F | 62.4
4 | Michael Dal Colle | F | 62.3
5 | Aaron Ekblad | D | 60.9
6 | William Nylander | F | 60.0
7 | Nick Schmaltz | F | 59.8
8 | Antti Kalapudas | F | 59.4
9 | Anthony DeAngelo | D | 59.2
10 | Nikolay Goldobin | F | 59.0
11 | Ivan Barbashev | F | 58.9
12 | Jake Virtanen | F | 58.4
13 | Samuel Bennett | F | 58.4
14 | Brandon Montour | D | 58.3
15 | Nicholas Ritchie | F | 58.3
16 | Pavel Kraskovsky | F | 58.2
17 | Sonny Milano | F | 58.0
18 | Nikita Scherbak | F | 57.9
19 | Haydn Fleury | D | 57.9
20 | Cody Donaghey | D | 57.9
21 | Gavin Bayreuther | D | 57.7
22 | Lucas Wallmark | F | 57.6
23 | Roland McKeown | D | 57.5
24 | Thatcher Demko | G | 57.3
25 | Mark Friedman | D | 57.2
26 | Axel Holmstrom | F | 57.1
27 | Kasimir Kaskisuo | G | 57.0
28 | Julius Honka | D | 57.0
29 | Brandon Hickey | D | 57.0
30 | Brendan Perlini | F | 56.9

| Round 2 | |
31 | Conner Bleackley | F | 56.9
32 | Alexis Vanier | D | 56.8
33 | Kelly Summers | D | 56.8
34 | Jared McCann | F | 56.7
35 | Justin Kirkland | F | 56.7
36 | Jack Glover | D | 56.7
37 | Dakota Joshua | F | 56.7
38 | Alex Nedeljkovic | G | 56.6
39 | Kyle Wood | D | 56.5
40 | Dysin Mayo | D | 56.5
41 | Kasperi Kapanen | F | 56.5
42 | Brycen Martin | D | 56.5
43 | Nikita Tryamkin | D | 56.4
44 | Pierre Engvall | F | 56.3
45 | Travis Sanheim | D | 56.3
46 | Carl Neill | D | 56.3
47 | Michael Prapavessis | D | 56.3
48 | Vladislav Kamenev | F | 56.2
49 | Mattias Goransson | D | 56.2
50 | Roman Khalikov | D | 56.2
51 | Kyle Jenkins | D | 56.2
52 | Ben Thomas | D | 56.1
53 | Julius Bergman | D | 56.1
54 | Alex Tuch | F | 56.1
55 | John Quenneville | F | 56.0
56 | Dexter Weber | D | 56.0
57 | Joshua Ho-Sang | F | 56.0
58 | Kevin Fiala | F | 56.0
59 | Ville Husso | G | 56.0
60 | Sebastian Aho | D | 55.9
| Round 3 | |
61 | Blake Siebenaler | D | 55.9
62 | Louis-Philip Guindon | G | 55.8
63 | Joe Hicketts | D | 55.8
64 | Eetu Sopanen | D | 55.8
65 | Joni Tuulola | D | 55.8
66 | Ville Vainola | D | 55.8
67 | Brett Beauvais | D | 55.8
68 | Adrian Kempe | F | 55.7
69 | Mathias Linnarud | D | 55.7
70 | Jeff Wight | F | 55.7
71 | Sebastian Moberg | D | 55.7
72 | Yegor Korshkov | F | 55.7
73 | Joshua Jacobs | D | 55.7
74 | August Gunnarsson | F | 55.7
75 | Stefan LeBlanc | D | 55.7
76 | Jakub Vrana | F | 55.7
77 | Artur Lauta | F | 55.6
78 | Logan Halladay | G | 55.6
79 | William Lagesson | D | 55.6
80 | Vladislav Gavrikov | D | 55.6
81 | Matthew Murphy | D | 55.6
82 | Jason Pawloski | G | 55.5
83 | Zachary Nagelvoort | G | 55.5
84 | Ryan Mantha | D | 55.5
85 | Rourke Chartier | F | 55.5
86 | Alexander Peters | D | 55.5
87 | Ken Appleby | G | 55.4
88 | Kevin Laliberte | D | 55.4
89 | Maxim Letunov | F | 55.4
90 | Lukas Ekestahl Jonsson | D | 55.3

| Round 4 | |
91 | Brayden Point | F | 55.3
92 | Lukas Bengtsson | D | 55.3
93 | David Pastrnak | F | 55.3
94 | Robert Fabbri | F | 55.3
95 | Chase De Leo | F | 55.2
96 | Stephen Desrocher | D | 55.2
97 | Joonas Lyytinen | D | 55.2
98 | Eric Cornel | F | 55.2
99 | Anton Ohman | D | 55.2
100 | Igor Shesterkin | G | 55.2
101 | Jack Dougherty | D | 55.1
102 | Olivier LeBlanc | D | 55.1
103 | Rinat Valiev | D | 55.0
104 | Aaron Irving | D | 55.0
105 | Yegor Orlov | D | 55.0
106 | Riley Stadel | D | 54.9
107 | Nicholas Magyar | F | 54.9
108 | Guillaume Beaudoin | D | 54.9
109 | Brett Pollock | F | 54.9
110 | Alexander Sharov | F | 54.9
111 | Oskar Lindblom | F | 54.9
112 | Sebastian Repo | F | 54.9
113 | Aleksandr Mikulovich | D | 54.9
114 | Dylan Chanter | D | 54.9
115 | Andrei Mironov | D | 54.9
116 | Luke Philp | F | 54.8
117 | Matthew Mancina | G | 54.7
118 | Scott Savage | D | 54.7
119 | Rinat Valiyev | D | 54.7
120 | Matt Mistele | F | 54.6


Given prior year comments, I know a lot of you don’t agree with my method, and that is fine. I just wanted to provide an alternative, purely statistical ranking.
 

Erikfromfin

Registered User
May 18, 2013
4,280
1,653
Wau thats quite the statistics. Impressive lists dont know where to comment on tho.
 

R S

Registered User
Sep 18, 2006
25,468
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This is extremely interesting. Thanks for posting.
 

Hagged

Registered User
Jul 6, 2009
3,375
215
Kasperi Kapanen – Really not sure why so many people are high on him; didn’t contribute too much a weak team in Finland; stats were worse than Lehkonen who was drafted in round two last year; performance not near Granlund, Teravainen and Barkov


Antti Kalapudas – Don’t know why more attention isn’t on him instead of Kapanen; he and Aho (who will probably be a top pick next year) dominated the junior team

Pick | Player | Position | Rating
1 | Sam Reinhart | F | 66.1
2 | Nikolaj Ehlers | F | 62.9
3 | Leon Draisaitl | F | 62.4
4 | Michael Dal Colle | F | 62.3
5 | Aaron Ekblad | D | 60.9
6 | William Nylander | F | 60.0
7 | Nick Schmaltz | F | 59.8

8 | Antti Kalapudas | F | 59.4

41 | Kasperi Kapanen | F | 56.5



Given prior year comments, I know a lot of you don’t agree with my method, and that is fine. I just wanted to provide an alternative, purely statistical ranking.

I think the difference how we see Kalapudas' season lies in the difference in the "rating" we give to FinU20 league relative to the Liiga (FEL) itself.

There seems to be definitely something wrong when 2013 Barkov's rating is exactly the same as Kalapudas' 2014 rating as their draft seasons were from different planets. Barkov's season was one of the all time best seasons leading to draft for a European prospect while Kalapudas' season was more or less 2nd round worthy (comparable to Markus Granlund's season). This rating difference would obviously lead to rating Kapanen's season low compared to his peers in the Junior leagues as his season was somewhat a disappointment statistically.

Lehkonen dropped due to concussions more than anything else. Also Teravainen and Mikael Granlund obviously were better prospects than Kapanen. I'm not saying Kapanen should be higher or Barkov should have had a higher rating the year before, just that Kalapudas should be lower and definitely have a lower score leading to the draft than what Barkov had in his draft year.
 

Rebuilt

Registered User
Jun 8, 2014
8,736
15
Tampa
Here is my prediction based soley on talent .

1) Ekblad
2) Nylander
3) Ehlers
4) Reinhart
5) Draisaitl.
 

Grandpabuzz

Registered User
Oct 13, 2003
910
0
Dallas, Texas
I think the difference how we see Kalapudas' season lies in the difference in the "rating" we give to FinU20 league relative to the Liiga (FEL) itself.

There seems to be definitely something wrong when 2013 Barkov's rating is exactly the same as Kalapudas' 2014 rating as their draft seasons were from different planets. Barkov's season was one of the all time best seasons leading to draft for a European prospect while Kalapudas' season was more or less 2nd round worthy (comparable to Markus Granlund's season). This rating difference would obviously lead to rating Kapanen's season low compared to his peers in the Junior leagues as his season was somewhat a disappointment statistically.

Lehkonen dropped due to concussions more than anything else. Also Teravainen and Mikael Granlund obviously were better prospects than Kapanen. I'm not saying Kapanen should be higher or Barkov should have had a higher rating the year before, just that Kalapudas should be lower and definitely have a lower score leading to the draft than what Barkov had in his draft year.

I don't group the FEL and Fin20 together, but in separate groupings which is why Kalapudas looks so good. He's performance compared to other Fin20 players is outstanding. Kalapudas hasn't played in at the FEL level yet, so we can't base his performance at that level but just let the system assume he would perform at the same level as Fin20.

that is if you, like your system, don't take into consideration that one was penalty killing while the other 2 were playing alongside Eichel...

Even so, I would still want to take the offensive player over a penalty killer. Who is too say Eichel wasn't playing alongside Milano?

dude.. you have Tarasenko, Nyquist, Palat and Monahan over MacKinnon.. WHAT!?

Yup. Mackinnon finished very strong, but had a shaky start. All are top prospects, regardless.
 

ignition16

Registered User
Feb 21, 2014
33
18
I've actually been wondering for a couple of months why nobody seems to be talking about Kalapudas despite the fact that he is a very late birthday and finished top-5 in scoring the Fin20 league. He also seemed to have a pretty good showing at the U18 tourney. He came in at #E30 on the CSS rankings, but seems to be left for the very last round, if at all, in any discussions I've seen.

The same goes for next year's Sebastian Aho as well. He's a very late birthday again and put up similar stats to Kalapudas despite being a year younger. However, he seems to be left out of discussions of next year's first round.

Is it just that nobody is impressed until you can show some time and some production in the FEL? These guys are both late birthdays for their draft year and their FEL team is very good, so it seems reasonable that they would be left on the Fin20 team when they'd probably play in the FEL with another team.

EDIT - Just want to clarify, I don't think Kalapudas is a first-rounder or anything, but it seems like he should be in the 3-4-5 discussion to me.
 
Last edited:

Anthony Mauro

DraftBuzz Hockey
Oct 3, 2004
6,859
5
www.draftbuzzhockey.com
This is highly stimulating analysis from a different perspective. I have played around with a similar ranking system in the past and do think there is value in something comparable. Had a lot of trouble factoring in the qualitative touch to what I see and how that merges.

Compared to our final ranking, there are a few criticized exact hits, and close to 10 2nd-4th rounders rated within a few picks of each other.

A highly regarded third round sleeper is Mark Friedman, clocked in at #25 so happy to see that of course. Qualitatively his game is there; interesting to see that through this metric, so is the quantitative.

Rinat Valiev looks to be listed twice in the 4th round.
 

Moskau

Registered User
Jun 30, 2004
19,978
4,743
WNY
Sean Malone being ranked that highly leads me to believe there is some over skewing in NCAA values. He had a nice season for himself but 21st overall for prospects? He's closer to 21st overall for Sabres prospects. That's some serious weighting. Compher had a great season and he's one of the most underrated prospects around but he's also too high.
 

Zandar

Registered User
Jan 20, 2007
492
96
Any way to take into account their role on a team? Saying Nathan had a shaky start doesn't take into account he started out on the third line with guys like McGinn, Downie and PA and was brought along slowly. While players at the top of your list (Monahan) saw lots of quality minutes early on (whether at the start of the season or when recalled). Line mates and quality minutes probably have a big effect on what you are trying to do.
 

leafs4life94

Registered User
Jan 15, 2014
710
363
Interesting. I obviously know this is strictly statistics based, but I'm surprised that Bennett is so low. It also shows a couple names that are higher up that I haven't really seen mentioned at all like Kalapudas, Montour and Kraskovsky.
 

tigervixxxen

Optimism=Delusional
Jul 7, 2013
53,056
6,154
Denver
burgundy-review.com
Interesting stuff, thank you. I was pleasantly surprised to see Butcher among your top defensive prospects. I feel like since he was a 5th round pick he's completely forgotten. Can you expand on what made him score so high in your rankings?
 

JJTT

Registered User
Jan 18, 2013
7,711
1,251
Oulu
Why no Juho Lammikko? His junior production in Fin U20 and WJC U18's is very good compared to guys like Repo or Väinölä.

He played a very limited role in his 20 SM-Liiga games this year, so rating his performance there is kinda unfair.
 

Erikfromfin

Registered User
May 18, 2013
4,280
1,653
Last year Barkov had indeed generational season in finnish elite league. Or in fact best ever statisticly only Peter Forsberg in sweden and Sedins have come near that at these corners of the world and now this years draft has 8 players with higher rating is kind of comical. Maybe theres flaw in the system that european based get lower rating dont know.
 

Grandpabuzz

Registered User
Oct 13, 2003
910
0
Dallas, Texas
Sean Malone being ranked that highly leads me to believe there is some over skewing in NCAA values. He had a nice season for himself but 21st overall for prospects? He's closer to 21st overall for Sabres prospects. That's some serious weighting. Compher had a great season and he's one of the most underrated prospects around but he's also too high.

Yeah I agree Malone looks out of place, but his production at Harvard compared to others who have played in the ECAC at his age makes him pop out. Not to mention his USHL stats were decent as well.

Any way to take into account their role on a team? Saying Nathan had a shaky start doesn't take into account he started out on the third line with guys like McGinn, Downie and PA and was brought along slowly. While players at the top of your list (Monahan) saw lots of quality minutes early on (whether at the start of the season or when recalled). Line mates and quality minutes probably have a big effect on what you are trying to do.

For NHL players - yes. Minutes played as a factor for a final score. However, for AHL and below, they don't report as advanced stats, so other stats would have to be used to get estimated figures. Below shows Mackinnon over the course of the season.

mackinnon.png



Interesting stuff, thank you. I was pleasantly surprised to see Butcher among your top defensive prospects. I feel like since he was a 5th round pick he's completely forgotten. Can you expand on what made him score so high in your rankings?

Was the best defensemen on the U18 last year points wise and transitioned that very well at his age at U of Denver.

Why no Juho Lammikko? His junior production in Fin U20 and WJC U18's is very good compared to guys like Repo or Väinölä.

He played a very limited role in his 20 SM-Liiga games this year, so rating his performance there is kinda unfair.

Just not at the same performance as Kalapudas. He also took a high number of penalties relative to the games he played. I have him in round 5.

This is highly stimulating analysis from a different perspective. I have played around with a similar ranking system in the past and do think there is value in something comparable. Had a lot of trouble factoring in the qualitative touch to what I see and how that merges.

Compared to our final ranking, there are a few criticized exact hits, and close to 10 2nd-4th rounders rated within a few picks of each other.

A highly regarded third round sleeper is Mark Friedman, clocked in at #25 so happy to see that of course. Qualitatively his game is there; interesting to see that through this metric, so is the quantitative.

Rinat Valiev looks to be listed twice in the 4th round.

Thanks - yes I am high on Friedman. Thanks on Valiev. Dylan Larkin would be now bumped up to the 4th round.
 
Last edited:

Hagged

Registered User
Jul 6, 2009
3,375
215
Last year Barkov had indeed generational season in finnish elite league. Or in fact best ever statisticly only Peter Forsberg in sweden and Sedins have come near that at these corners of the world and now this years draft has 8 players with higher rating is kind of comical. Maybe theres flaw in the system that european based get lower rating dont know.

The reason is definitely not european bias as Kalapudas has the exact same rating as Barkov did last year. Possibly there are too few cases of draft eligible players with pro league experience so they have a higher "risk rating" in this rating system. Kalapudas wouldn't have been anywhere close to Barkov in pro leagues, possibly not even at the level of 16 year old Barkov (0.5PPG while being defensively sound).
 

Kearns

Too good to be true, no?
Jun 7, 2008
359
214
Kamloops, BC
I look forward to this prediction thread. Looks like a hell of a lot of work to me. Stats lie, like maps lie, but this provides a really interesting counterpoint to a lot of the regurgitated stuff that makes up some of the mocks.

So, my questions to the OP is - can you talk at all about David Pastrnak? You have him at the top of round four, and he did not make your list of biggest surprises. Why?
 

Grandpabuzz

Registered User
Oct 13, 2003
910
0
Dallas, Texas
I look forward to this prediction thread. Looks like a hell of a lot of work to me. Stats lie, like maps lie, but this provides a really interesting counterpoint to a lot of the regurgitated stuff that makes up some of the mocks.

So, my questions to the OP is - can you talk at all about David Pastrnak? You have him at the top of round four, and he did not make your list of biggest surprises. Why?

He had decent stats in Sweden, but nothing shattering on a per game level. Relied more on assists than goals (Nylander had more goals in half as many games) and penalty minutes were somewhat high. Goals for forwards in the Swedish leagues are probably the most important factor (relative to age of course) given the defensive nature they have there.
 

Andy Dufresne

Registered User
Jun 17, 2009
2,615
696
Any statistical model that has Brayden Point in the 4th round has flat out failed. There are reasons he might not be a 1st rounder but those reasons shouldn't show up in a purely statistical model (size and speed).

I'm guessing he gets hammered in your system for his +-, but that doesn't take into account? he played on one of the worst teams in junior hockey. Without Point Moose Jaw is nearly (not quite) Lethbridge bad.
 

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