Doctor No
Registered User
A little preview of something I've been working on.
The premise of this exercise is simple - how many goals above average did a particular NHL goaltender prevent in the 2005-06 National Hockey League?
It's a very straightforward calculation:
Suppose that the "league average" goaltender stopped exactly 90% of shots
faced.
Suppose that Goalie X allows 80 goals on 1000 shots (92% saves on shots faced). On 1000 shots, a "league average" goaltender would allow 100 goals.
Therefore, Goalie X has a goal differential (relative to the league) of 20 goals.
One benefit of this analysis, when compared to save percentage, is that it is league-neutral. A goaltender who stops 92% of shots in 2003-04 (when the league save percentage was 91.1%) is much more average than one who stops 92% of shots in 1988-89 (when the league save percentage was 87.9%).
Another benefit is that it gives more value to a good goaltender who plays a lot. If you're stopping 92% of shots faced, but only playing one game, you're not helping your team as much as someone who stops 92% of shots in sixty games.
Notes - there are obvious deficiencies with this method. Most prominently, it's a transformation of save percentage, and therefore carries all of the disadvantages of save percentage.
The premise of this exercise is simple - how many goals above average did a particular NHL goaltender prevent in the 2005-06 National Hockey League?
It's a very straightforward calculation:
Suppose that the "league average" goaltender stopped exactly 90% of shots
faced.
Suppose that Goalie X allows 80 goals on 1000 shots (92% saves on shots faced). On 1000 shots, a "league average" goaltender would allow 100 goals.
Therefore, Goalie X has a goal differential (relative to the league) of 20 goals.
One benefit of this analysis, when compared to save percentage, is that it is league-neutral. A goaltender who stops 92% of shots in 2003-04 (when the league save percentage was 91.1%) is much more average than one who stops 92% of shots in 1988-89 (when the league save percentage was 87.9%).
Another benefit is that it gives more value to a good goaltender who plays a lot. If you're stopping 92% of shots faced, but only playing one game, you're not helping your team as much as someone who stops 92% of shots in sixty games.
Notes - there are obvious deficiencies with this method. Most prominently, it's a transformation of save percentage, and therefore carries all of the disadvantages of save percentage.
Code:
[font=courier new]
[B]GOALTENDER TEAM GD[/B]
Kiprusoff CGY 41.60
Vokoun NSH 35.86
Luongo FLO 32.62
Lundqvist NYR 30.60
Huet MON 30.11
Fernandez MIN 29.14
Hasek OTT 28.66
Brodeur NJD 20.81
Thomas BOS 18.75
Miller BUF 18.16
Giguere ANA 17.03
Legace DET 16.81
Leclaire CBJ 10.01
Roloson [I][COLOR=DimGray]MIN 6.93
EDM 2.06[/COLOR][/I]
TOTAL 8.99
Gerber CAR 7.70
Aubin TOR 7.58
Toivonen BOS 7.25
Mason NSH 6.94
Sanford STL 6.37
Bryzgalov ANA 6.36
Lehtonen ATL 4.86
Biron BUF 3.75
Johnson WSH 3.31
Schaefer SJS 2.62
Auld VAN 2.32
McLennan FLO 1.54
Emery OTT 1.16
Danis MON 1.01
Joseph PHO 0.84
Howard DET 0.27
Holt NYR 0.20
Harding MIN 0.19
Sigalet BOS 0.00
McVicar VAN 0.00
Rinne NSH -0.05
Coleman TBL -0.32
Toskala SJS -0.32
Dubielewicz NYI -0.69
Budaj COL -0.71
Crawford CHI -0.95
Cassivi WSH -1.04
LaBarbera NYR -1.08
Eklund TBL -1.12
Bacashihua STL -1.16
Hedberg DAL -1.40
Munro CHI -1.90
Denis CBJ -2.43
Kolesnik COL -2.43
DiPietro NYI -2.60
Sabourin PIT -2.62
Dunham ATL -2.83
Finley NSH -2.95
Cloutier VAN -3.03
Osgood DET -3.26
Aebischer [I][COLOR=DimGray]COL -1.28
MON -2.31[/COLOR][/I]
TOTAL -3.59
Hauser LOS -3.63
Prusek CBJ -3.71
Tellqvist TOR -4.19
Esche PHI -4.51
Burke TBL -4.58
Berkhoel ATL -4.83
Fleury PIT -5.40
Weekes NYR -5.41
Turco DAL -5.68
Clemmensen NJD -5.88
LeNeveu PHO -5.89
Shields ATL -6.27
Sauve [I][COLOR=DimGray]CGY -2.06
PHO -4.36[/COLOR][/I]
TOTAL -6.42
Noronen [I][COLOR=DimGray]BUF -4.40
VAN -2.40[/COLOR][/I]
TOTAL -6.80
Conklin EDM -7.56
Niittymaki PHI -8.02
Morrison [I][COLOR=DimGray]EDM -6.36
OTT -2.52[/COLOR][/I]
TOTAL -8.88
Snow NYI -9.26
Kolzig WSH -9.84
Garnett ATL -10.41
Anderson CHI -11.27
Boucher [I][COLOR=DimGray]PHO -6.54
CGY -4.83[/COLOR][/I]
TOTAL -11.37
Thibault PIT -12.22
Belfour TOR -13.29
Garon LOS -13.42
Divis STL -14.20
Caron PIT -14.64
Ward CAR -14.69
Lalime STL -17.31
Grahame TBL -17.86
Nabokov SJS -18.48
Raycroft BOS -18.65
Markkanen EDM -18.82
Khabibulin CHI -20.86
Theodore [i][COLOR=DimGray]MON -20.81
COL -1.87[/COLOR][/i]
TOTAL -22.68
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