Line Combos: 1st vs. 2nd line - time to split up Ehlers - Little - Laine? Mod Warning Post #552

[Ducky10]

No, you did not see correctly. [mod]

And it's not kind of weird to take these as straw man arguments when you are claiming A and he insists that you are claiming B and then refutes that B. He is simply moving the goal posts while continuing with his insults that are based on his wrong intrepretation of my claims.

My claim that I have been posting so many times on these forums with different wordings is as following:

1. Laine happens to be most often the guy that makes breakouts when he is on ice. (*)

2. While some people believe in UFOs, unicorns and randomness, there is no such things in hockey or normal life, actually. For rational people, anyway. Things are just so hugely complicated that what we perceive is often "randomness". If you flip a coin, there is 50/50 changes you get heads or tails. True random, right? But if you flip coin 1000 times, it's NOT 50/50 whether you get pretty even distribution 500ish/500ish or totally uneven distribution 1000/0 or 0/1000. If your pal flips the coin 1000 times and wins let's say 800+ times himself, he is not extremely lucky. He is a con artist. If someone happens to be most of the time(*) the guy that makes the breakout on his line with 4 other guys there, he is not lucky/unlucky, but there are real reasons behind it.

3. What are those real reasons, and who is the evil mastermind behind that recurring Laine breakout scheme, I don't know. I can only suspect that Maurice, Laine or other ELL line guys might be involved on this.

(*) Not yet proven, due to smallish sample sizes, but at least those samples where not cherry picked. Also a lot of other people seems to be seeing this themselves.

You said this,

"They really need to change that breakout plan. Everyone and their mother and a friend of the mother and blind&deaf dog of that friend knows already, that ELL line (+ the 2 d-man behind that line) tries to put the puck for Laine so that he could try to chip it into the neutral zone. And since everyone knows that, they will put instant pressure on Laine even before he touches the puck.

Boys pretty please, that trick ain't workin' anymore. Paul, you got paid for this"

And this,


"Well, we are maybe overanalyzing things, but one thing is for sure: something has to be done to the breakout strategies. It's way too easy to predict against ELL that they are trying to give the puck to Laine, who is trying to get it into the neutral zone. There have been some exceptions to the rule, where Little, Ehlers or one of the d-men have tried that breakout, but more often than not they are sticking to the plan A, which haven't worked lately all that well.

If that is me misinterpreting your pov then my apologies, but you seem to be suggesting the plan for this line is to get the puck to Laine when breaking out.

 

[Runforthecup]

Give Hendricks a rest in the second game of the SL back to back. Call Roslo up and go with:
Laine/Scheif/Wheeler
Ehlers/Lits/Roslo
Copp/Lowry/Tanev
Connor/Perr/Armia
Roll 4 lines in the second game of a B to B. Laine gets on his scoring side with two good passers. Roslo adds discipline to the second line. Lowry line doing fine. Perrauult gets added offensive potential. If it works go on the road with it.

 

[Runforthecup]

Also would surprise the Blues.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Give Hendricks a rest in the second game of the SL back to back. Call Roslo up and go with:
Laine/Scheif/Wheeler
Ehlers/Lits/Roslo
Copp/Lowry/Tanev
Connor/Perr/Armia
Roll 4 lines in the second game of a B to B. Laine gets on his scoring side with two good passers. Roslo adds discipline to the second line. Lowry line doing fine. Perrauult gets added offensive potential. If it works go on the road with it.

Unfortunately you can't without putting someone on waivers. One more reason to play Dano or trade him. At this point the latter is far more likely.

 

[ecolad]

Wow interesting discussion for sure. My personal view is that the boys do in fact breakout from the right side ,significantly moreso than the left, for a number of reasons. I`d suggest however that this pattern has held true for a long time,well before we were lucky enough to draft Laine. It`s probably related in part to the makeup of our D, which has all of the players inclined to be puck movers on the right side !! The issue is that they have now been schooled to take only "low risk" plays staying along the boards, with no options to exploit open ice in the middle. This puts tremendous pressure on the RW (no matter which one) to be positionally correct in the various game situations; to accept a chip pass or even a reversal around the boards while stationary and usually deep in the zone; and to then "transition the puck" out at least to neutral ice, oftentimes with the boards sealed off by the forecheck. Clearly a systems problem and nothing directly to do with Laine himself, other than make him apparently more frustrated.

 

[pucka lucka]

What strawman? You have stated that the team wants Laine as the go to guy on the breakout. That is demonstrably false and defies logic, breakout systems do not revolve around singular players.

Have you ever considered it could partly have something to do with how other teams are playing the Jets? If I were the opposition, I would sure try to have the puck go up the right wall.

Have you ever noticed how much better Laine is exiting the zone on the left side? alas, PoMo knows, we are just stupid fans...

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

Have you ever noticed how much better Laine is exiting the zone on the left side? alas, PoMo knows, we are just stupid fans...

Well I've seen him deke better from that side but I wouldn't say other aspects of playing that side are better.

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

Team ran the lines we have come to expect at practice so unless we are losing fans will need to wait until another day to see what ever iteration of our lines floats their boat.

Hopefully the Blues take a bunch of penalties in both games.

At some point the want / desire to move Laine with Scheif to get him going may turn into needing a change to get Scheifele going. The lack of 5v5 scoring is starting to become very noticeable.

 

[JetsFan815]

He has a hell of time getting the puck out of the zone on his forehand on the right side. Why do people expect it's going to be easier on the backhand on the left side?

 

[Psych0dad]

Team ran the lines we have come to expect at practice so unless we are losing fans will need to wait until another day to see what ever iteration of our lines floats their boat.

Hopefully the Blues take a bunch of penalties in both games.

At some point the want / desire to move Laine with Scheif to get him going may turn into needing a change to get Scheifele going. The lack of 5v5 scoring is starting to become very noticeable.

That has been part of that need all along. Also getting Ehlers, Little and Laine going. All of them should benefit.

 

[Narow]

He has a hell of time getting the puck out of the zone on his forehand on the right side. Why do people expect it's going to be easier on the backhand on the left side?

He played Lw for most of his career...you kinda learn how to do it that way.

Its like kicking a ball with wour left leg all your life then have to start kicking with the right, it is not easy and will take a while to get goot, never as good as with the left tho.

 

[armyjoe]

He has a hell of time getting the puck out of the zone on his forehand on the right side. Why do people expect it's going to be easier on the backhand on the left side?

I think it has something to do it with his ~ten years experience with that

The hate Laine is getting makes me obligated to drop him to a #eighthbestforwardonthejets

 

[Ducky10]

He played Lw for most of his career...you kinda learn how to do it that way.

Its like kicking a ball with wour left leg all your life then have to start kicking with the right, it is not easy and will take a while to get goot, never as good as with the left tho.

Wow interesting discussion for sure. My personal view is that the boys do in fact breakout from the right side ,significantly moreso than the left, for a number of reasons. I`d suggest however that this pattern has held true for a long time,well before we were lucky enough to draft Laine. It`s probably related in part to the makeup of our D, which has all of the players inclined to be puck movers on the right side !! The issue is that they have now been schooled to take only "low risk" plays staying along the boards, with no options to exploit open ice in the middle. This puts tremendous pressure on the RW (no matter which one) to be positionally correct in the various game situations; to accept a chip pass or even a reversal around the boards while stationary and usually deep in the zone; and to then "transition the puck" out at least to neutral ice, oftentimes with the boards sealed off by the forecheck. Clearly a systems problem and nothing directly to do with Laine himself, other than make him apparently more frustrated.

I see this more when they have a controlled breakout opportunity but not when they are pinned in the zone. They definitely breakout up the RW on the PP. Still, when Morrissey, Enstrom and Kuli are the retrievers in the opposite corner, they typically wheel to the left or are the reverse option if their partner retrieves.

 

[kelsier]

What I find the most odd is the fact that every "top" winger in the team has had their moments in the first line. That is, every top winger apart from Laine. This includes Wheelers, Ehlers, Connor and Perreault. So why not Laine? If someone replies with corsi numbers from recent games, then howabout the corsi from early season when Laine was leading the entire team from the forwards. I find this pretty astonishing considering the chemistry shown between Laine and Scheifele in the past. Of course one can point out "but hey they sucked in their own zone", but which line didn't? Last year's Jets defence was abysmal and goalkeeping even worse. 17-18 isn't 16-17 where there was a hoover machine in the net and no one to turning it off, nor do the Jets have unsigned top end defenders waiting to be shipped off anymore than they would be cursed with the injuries. This is something worth considering since he hasn't been given one single chance for a showcase. Not even one. No one can claim that ESL, LSW or PSL would not work since we have no data at all from 17-18. One can only come up with their own opinion and speculations in that regard. At the other end of the spectrum we have Little & Laine combination who by now have demonstrated of being fully out of sync where both guys' offence is really taking a hit. Personally until I see it with my own ice that Scheifele & Laine combo wouldn't work I take the personal views with grain of salt and rather go with what I saw last season from an 18 year old kid and an actual elite center who seemed to be in exact same frequency.

 

[KB1971]

Didn't Laine start at left wing last year, struggled in d zone and was put on the right side to make it easier?

 

[Maukkis]

Didn't Laine start at left wing last year, struggled in d zone and was put on the right side to make it easier?

I remember it being that way. Moreover, if you want to play him on the left side, what happens to the rest of the roster? You'd have Ehlers, Laine, Perreault and Connor on the left, whereas on the right you would have... Wheeler and a bunch of guys.

 

[DashingDane]

I remember it being that way. Moreover, if you want to play him on the left side, what happens to the rest of the roster? You'd have Ehlers, Laine, Perreault and Connor on the left, whereas on the right you would have... Wheeler and a bunch of guys.

Well technically Ehlers mostly played RW before making the Jets so I don’t think it would be a problem to move him over. But all this LW vs RW just sounds like excuses to me. They are professional hockey players and if Ehlers can learn so can Laine.

 

[Ducky10]

Well technically Ehlers mostly played RW before making the Jets so I don’t think it would be a problem to move him over. But all this LW vs RW just sounds like excuses to me. They are professional hockey players and if Ehlers can learn so can Laine.

If a player can be effective on his off wing it's silly to think he can't be equally effective if not more so on his strong side.

 

[Psych0dad]

If a player can be effective on his off wing it's silly to think he can't be equally effective if not more so on his strong side.

Well, from LW he can shoot onetimers better and getting more shots off is what you want to maximize with the best shooter. That's why he is on left in PP.

I play lefty so I like RW more than LW for that particular reason. Could be the same for Laine.

 

[Ducky10]

Well, from LW he can shoot onetimers better and getting more shots off is what you want to maximize with the best shooter. That's why he is on left in PP.

I play lefty so I like RW more than LW for that particular reason. Could be the same for Laine.

Offensive zone stuff matters little for what side you are on, playing on your strong side doesn't effect how you enter the zone all that much differently. Ehlers often crosses over to the right side once he crosses the blue line, either with the puck or without it.

Off the rush opening up for a one timer is defintely easier and on odd man rushes if you have space. Otherwise it's harder to protect the puck with your stick to the inside of the ice.

 

[Psych0dad]

Off the rush opening up for a one timer is defintely easier and on odd man rushes if you have space. Otherwise it's harder to protect the puck with your stick to the inside of the ice.

Yes, unless of course one is used to and very good at cutting in from left and not used to doing it from right. Which appears to be the case with him but he is learning it...he has been cutting to the middle but ends up on backhand so he has to pass instead of shoot. Those would be prime scoring area shots from LW.

I don't mind if he plays RW but just saying he is better on LW

 

[Ducky10]

Yes, unless of course one is used to and very good at cutting in from left and not used to doing it from right. Which appears to be the case with him but he is learning it...he has been cutting to the middle but ends up on backhand so he has to pass instead of shoot. Those would be prime scoring area shots from LW.

I don't mind if he plays RW but just saying he is better on LW

In the offensive end agreed.

 

[PhilJets]

The player who has been the Jets best goal scorer on supposedly his bad year (lol 2nd yr as 19 yr old ) is the most scrutinizes Jet player by some.

Its actually ridiculous in Jets board now.

The 8th best forward have more love in the main board than here.

GO jets Go

Beat the Blues 2x

 

[nobody important]

I've come to believe that keeping Ehlers-Little-Laine together is the best thing for this team. As long as they are given 4th line minutes.

 

[Halberdier]

You can't help but love this "do not touch the lineups while we are winning" theme by Paul Maurice. As we have been winning 1 out of the last 6 games and only 4 straight losses, which is awesome, no doubt.

During one already lost game Maurice did almost bench Connor, replace him with Ehlers and replace Ehlers with Perreault. A switch that pretty much did not change the 1st line at all since Connor ~= Ehlers, and that Perreault move did not make Little and Laine to be magically playing same kind of play. What is funny in that move was that the moment Maurice did *anything* to the lineup was that he found out the 1st line is not going. For the 2nd line his recipe has always been either doing nothing or benching.

ELL is working "great", as accidentally proven by the corsi numbers by someone that tried to prove something other with that statline. If someone did not already know, Laine and Little has played 5-on-5 almost every shift together last 10 and more games, and when there are some minor differenties in their corsi, they are due super small sample size including those brief moments after PP2 had just ended the PP being technically on 5-on-5. Ehlers OTOH has played small but still significant amount with Scheifele and Wheeler during that 10 game period, so unless he is that much worse than Connor (and he isn't), it's natural that his corsi should be a bit closer to that of CSW line.